{"id":15217,"date":"2019-07-03T17:08:08","date_gmt":"2019-07-03T20:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inthemine.com.br\/site\/?p=15217"},"modified":"2019-07-03T17:08:08","modified_gmt":"2019-07-03T20:08:08","slug":"xp-investimentos-avalia-cpi-de-brumadinho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inthemine.com.br\/site\/xp-investimentos-avalia-cpi-de-brumadinho\/","title":{"rendered":"XP INVESTIMENTOS AVALIA CPI DE BRUMADINHO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Analista do Grupo XP divulgaram hoje (dia 3 de junho) relat\u00f3rio sobre a CPI de Brumadinho. O foco \u00e9 dimensionar o impacto da investiga\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional nas a\u00e7\u00f5es da Vale. A preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o maior diz respeito ao aumento da tributa\u00e7\u00e3o. Al\u00e9m do tempo prolongado para uma defini\u00e7\u00e3o, j\u00e1 que outras inst\u00e2ncias ter\u00e3o que ser ouvidas.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.inthemine.com.br\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/xp-investimentos.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-15218 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.inthemine.com.br\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/xp-investimentos.gif\" alt=\"banner XP\" width=\"556\" height=\"119\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>O documento \u00e9 de autoria de Betina Roxo da \u00e1rea de minera\u00e7\u00e3o de siderurgia da Research XP, em conjunto com Erich Decat, analista pol\u00edtico da XP Pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>As principais conclus\u00f5es de Betina Roxo s\u00e3o as seguintes: <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>A discuss\u00e3o de tributos, principalmente, pode trazer volatilidade \u00e0s a\u00e7\u00f5es da Vale. Principalmente, porque &#8220;foi proposto um Projeto de Lei que altera as regras de tributa\u00e7\u00e3o do setor de minera\u00e7\u00e3o e uma al\u00edquota m\u00e1xima da Participa\u00e7\u00e3o Especial de 40%&#8221;. &#8220;Que recai apenas sobre as empresas com grande produ\u00e7\u00e3o&#8221;. Ou seja, uma nova carga tribut\u00e1ria. A despeito &#8220;da regra dos royalties da minera\u00e7\u00e3o ter sido alterada, em 2017, de 2% sobre a receita l\u00edquida para 3,5% do faturamento bruto da empresa.<\/p>\n<p>A analista ressalta que, naquele ano, propostas como essa n\u00e3o foram aprovadas. J\u00e1 que inviabilizariam boa parte do setor mineral. A trag\u00e9dia de Brumadinho deve reacender a discuss\u00e3o. A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 que &#8220;o aumento da tributa\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 poss\u00edvel&#8221;, mas n\u00e3o 40%. Na medida em que &#8220;inviabilizaria o setor mineral no Brasil&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Betina Roxo calcula que o EBITDA da Vale diminuiria 1,3% para cada 1% de aumento dos royalties. Caso os royalties subam para 7%, o EBITDA de 2020 cairia 4,5%. Mas a Vale ainda negociaria. Considerando-se &#8220;pre\u00e7o do min\u00e9rio de US$75\/t em 2020 (vs spot de US$126,5\/t)&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Mantemos recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o de compra na Vale com pre\u00e7o-alvo de R$68\/a\u00e7\u00e3o e US$17\/ADR&#8221;, diz ela. &#8220;Na nossa vis\u00e3o, ap\u00f3s provisionar a maior parte do passivo com a trag\u00e9dia de Brumadinho (US$ 5 bilh\u00f5es), a Vale est\u00e1 focada em chegar a acordos com partes e autoridades afetadas at\u00e9 2019 ou in\u00edcio de 2020&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Em seu modo de entender, &#8220;o acordo colocaria um fim \u00e0s incertezas operacionais e legais remanescentes, permitindo que a empresa se concentre em seus neg\u00f3cios e que as a\u00e7\u00f5es sejam negociadas de volta aos fundamentos&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Concluindo, ela lembra que &#8220;as a\u00e7\u00f5es da Vale permanecem com desconto aos pares (20%), negociadas a 4,7x EV\/EBITDA 2020. &#8220;Esperamos uma converg\u00eancia gradual para os 10%, que consideramos justos, com uma rentabilidade de 10-15% de sua gera\u00e7\u00e3o de caixa em 2019-20&#8221;.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00a0CPI de Brumadinho, segundo o time da XP Pol\u00edtica<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Tramita\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/strong> Para que as medidas de fato passem a ser aplicadas \u00e9 preciso que o projeto seja votado pelo Senado, depois pela C\u00e2mara e em seguida sancionado pelo presidente da Rep\u00fablica.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pr\u00f3ximos passos:<\/strong> O projeto dever\u00e1 ser despachado pelo presidente do Senado, que indicar\u00e1 por quais comiss\u00f5es a proposta dever\u00e1 tramitar. Passando pelos colegiados, o texto vai para plen\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n<p>Caso seja aprovado no plen\u00e1rio, a mesma din\u00e2mica ocorre na C\u00e2mara. Ou seja, o presidente da Casa ir\u00e1 designar as comiss\u00f5es que v\u00e3o tratar do tema e ap\u00f3s passar pelos colegiados segue para o plen\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n<p>Caso a C\u00e2mara fa\u00e7a altera\u00e7\u00f5es na proposta, essas modifica\u00e7\u00f5es voltam a ser discutidas pelos senadores, que dar\u00e3o a palavra final.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sobre o Cen\u00e1rio Pol\u00edtico:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Na foto de hoje n\u00e3o h\u00e1 nenhuma sinaliza\u00e7\u00e3o por parte das principais lideran\u00e7as do Senado de que pretendem votar esse tema rapidamente;<\/p>\n<p>Um term\u00f4metro de que a proposta passou a ser prioridade entre os l\u00edderes \u00e9 a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o de um requerimento de urg\u00eancia. O que daria ao presidente do Senado a prerrogativa de colocar o texto em vota\u00e7\u00e3o no plen\u00e1rio, sem a necessidade de discuss\u00e3o nas comiss\u00f5es. Esse ponto, por\u00e9m, \u00e9 apenas ilustrativo e ser\u00e1 monitorado por nosso time;<\/p>\n<p>Historicamente, esse tipo de proposta n\u00e3o \u00e9 votado t\u00e3o rapidamente em decorr\u00eancia dos diversos interesses envolvidos;<\/p>\n<p>Aumento de tributa\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o tem feito parte da agenda da atual equipe econ\u00f4mica. Ou seja, at\u00e9 o momento, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de que o Executivo tem interesse na proposta. O que \u00e9 importante do ponto de vista de articula\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica em torno do projeto;<\/p>\n<p>O senador relator \u00e9 do Estado de Minas, afetado pela trag\u00e9dia de Brumadinho. Ter uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o p\u00fablica mais dura contra os atores envolvidos no epis\u00f3dio tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 uma forma de falar diretamente com a popula\u00e7\u00e3o do Estado.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Foco \u00e9 dimensionar o impacto da investiga\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional nas a\u00e7\u00f5es da Vale. Preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o maior \u00e9 o aumento da tributa\u00e7\u00e3o e a demora na defini\u00e7\u00e3o<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15218,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[468],"tags":[3938,3939,3942,3941,3940],"class_list":["post-15217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ultimas-noticias","tag-acoes-da-vale","tag-impacto-de-brumadinho-nas-acoes-da-vale","tag-investimento-em-acoes-da-vale","tag-research-xp","tag-xp-avalia-cpi-de-brumadinho"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>XP INVESTIMENTOS AVALIA CPI DE BRUMADINHO - Revista In The Mine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Foco \u00e9 dimensionar o impacto da investiga\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso Nacional nas a\u00e7\u00f5es da Vale. 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